Narrative Publications

ICMPD Migration Outlook 2020

ICMPD Migration Outlook 2020 - 10 things to look out for in 2020

Ten things to look out for in 2020 2020 will be another challenging year for EU migration policy. Below is a non-exhaustive list of trends and developments that will be high on the agenda of decision-makers and analysts alike.

1. The situation in main countries and regions of origin As with previous years, 2020 will again see the migration situation in the wider European region shaped by developments in the conflict areas in the Near and Middle East and in African regions. In addition, the major displacement crisis in Latin America, which started to affect Europe in 2019, will continue to do so this year. For 2020, most geopolitical outlooks expect continued or growing instability in these regions. Consequently, there is no reason to believe that migration pressures towards Europe will decrease this year.

2. Irregular migration as the main theme of the European debate Again in 2019, the migration debate in Europe was dominated primarily by issues surrounding irregular migration and asylum and this picture will not change this year. At the same time, the effects of demographic ageing are increasingly felt on European labour markets and employers have started to push for more openings on labour migration. European governments will face the challenge of drawing a clearer distinction between skilled and other types of migration and of communicating more clearly why the former might be needed in the future.

3. Secondary movements towards Europe 2019 has seen an increase in irregular and asylum migration, particularly of Afghan nationals towards Turkey and the EU. Thus, many of these migrants are not moving from their home country but from countries in the region hosting large refugee populations. Iran for instance hosts about 3 million Afghans. Their economic situation has deteriorated significantly due to the sanctions imposed on the country. The Turkish government’s plan to establish a safe zone in Syria to resettle Syrian nationals might also prompt secondary movements to the EU. These trends will continue in 2020 and pose additional challenges for EU asylum and return policies.

4. The prospects of a peace process in Libya The European migration situation always depends on the situation in Libya as a main point of departure for asylum seekers and irregular migrants from African countries but also other regions headed towards Europe. The recently initiated peace process gives some hope to believe that the EU 2 – Libya cooperation on migration control will hold again in 2020, limiting the number of departures to Europe via the Central Mediterranean Route.

5. The Eastern Mediterranean Migration Route as the main hotspot Last year saw a further shift in irregular migration routes towards the Eastern Mediterranean. Given the situation in the main regions of origin of related flows and assuming that cooperation agreements will hold along the Western and Central Mediterranean Routes, the Eastern Mediterranean Migration Route will be the main hotspot for migration management for the EU and its partners in 2020.

6. The migration situation in Turkey and Greece Both countries faced mounting pressures in 2019 linked to the large numbers of refugees and displaced they already host and the increasing numbers of refugees and migrants crossing their territories with the aim of reaching the Northern and Western Member States of the EU. In 2020, the EU will have to provide the greatest possible support at all levels and by all means to Turkey and Greece to prevent them from being overburdened and to preserve the EU – Turkey Statement.

7. Secondary movements within the EU The movement of asylum seekers from the first Member State where they submit their application to others Member States is a general problem for the European system. Last year saw a peak in applications of nationals from Latin American countries in the EU. Thus far, about 90 % of these applications were submitted in Spain. Given the bleak outlook in the Latin American countries of origin, forced migration from these countries to Europe is likely to continue. A saturation of the Spanish labour and housing market could prompt secondary movements of Latin American nationals to other EU Member States.

8. The new EU Pact on Migration and Asylum The new Commission plans to present the outline of the new Pact for the European Summit in March. The Pact envisages ambitious agenda items, amongst others the development of a truly European Asylum System. Member States are, however, far apart on the issues of solidarity, burden sharing and a mechanism for the distribution of asylum seekers. It remains to be seen whether the Commission can overcome the stalemate around these issues and bring Member States closer together again. If this difficult goal can be achieved, the Pact could start showing real effects next year. 3

9. The German proposal on asylum screening at the external borders. Germany has proposed an approach that could re-launch intra-EU cooperation on asylum issues and irregular migration. The idea is to screen asylum applications at the external borders, return inadmissible cases immediately and distribute the remaining applicants among Member States based on a yet to be agreed distribution key. Access to an asylum procedure and to social benefits would be available only in the responsible Member State. If built up gradually, a system of this kind could indeed incentivise EU cooperation and de-incentivise irregular arrivals. 2020 will show whether the plan can gather support from a enough Member States to go beyond declarations of intent and include credible commitments towards the Member States at the external borders.

10. Brexit and the status of EU and UK migrants 2020 will preserve the current status quo. The real change will come in 2021 when free movement is slated to end for EU and UK citizens. Nonetheless, the post-Brexit status of these migrants might turn into a bargaining chip in the Brexit negotiations already this year and divide the EU Member states who attach different levels of significance to the issue. Thus, the new Commission might face some challenges to preserve unity among all Member States over the issue.

ICMPD Migration Outlook 2020 - 10 things to look out for in 2020
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Framing migration in the southern Mediterranean: how do civil society actors evaluate EU migration policies? The case of Tunisia

After repeated failed attempts to reform its dysfunctional internal architecture, the external dimension has become the real cornerstone of the EU’s migration strategy, with the Mediterranean as its main geographical priority. In spite of routine rhetorical references to its cooperative and partnership-based nature, the EU external migration policy-making remains essentially unilateral and top-down. Civil societies of sending and transit countries, in particular, tend to be excluded; however, better understanding the policy frames and priorities of “partner” countries’ stakeholders vis-à-vis EU migration policies represents a crucial task. Based on extensive fieldwork carried out in the context of the MEDRESET project, this article contributes to fill this gap by focusing on the case of Tunisia. In a context of much lower salience and politicisation compared to the European context, Tunisian civil society actors are critical about the EU’s security-based framing of migration and mobility. However, rather than displaying a radically antagonistic stance, the most influential Tunisian civil society stakeholders show an overall collaborative attitude towards the EU. This may represent a strategic resource for the EU to promote a more participatory governance of migration, which may lead to more balanced, effective and mutually beneficial migration policies in the Mediterranean region.

Framing Migration in the Southern Mediterranean - How do civil society actors evaluate EU migration policies - The case of Tunisia, Ferruccio Pastore and Emanuela Roman, 2020.pdf
Public attitudes on migration: rethinking how people perceive migration

Public attitudes on migration: rethinking how people perceive migration

The International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) commissioned the Migration Policy Centre (MPC) of the European University Institute to provide this report in early 2018, based on the work of the MPC’s Observatory of Public Attitudes to Migration (OPAM). This built on the insight and recommendations of the first EuroMed Migration Communications Study—‘How does the media on both sides of the Mediterranean report on migration?' This second study aims to:

  • Offer a better understanding of public attitudes to migration in 17 selected countries on both sides of the Mediterranean;1

  • Attempt to explain why attitudes to migration are what they are — with an emphasis on the role of media. The report both summarises previous findings and provides new analyses;

  • Provide recommendations on how to communicate on migration in a non-polarising manner.

Public attitudes on migration: rethinking how people perceive migration
Migration and Media - A Journalist's Handbook

Migration and Media - A Journalist's Handbook

The worldwide migrant, refugee, and human trafficking crisis has reached such catastrophic and alarming proportions that media often find themselves unprepared to handle the coverage effectively, professionally and ethically.

Reporting on these topics requires good training, knowledge, stamina, physical and financial resources, patience, empathy, various journalistic skills encompassing digital storytelling across multiple platforms, a desire to create awareness about a problem likely to make news for years to come, and the presentation of possible solutions to mitigate the disruption created by migration, asylum seeking and human trafficking.

A serious setback for journalists in the Arab world and beyond is they are not dedicated to the topic – i.e. not beat reporters covering it on a daily basis. Media, faced with regular budget cuts, staff layoffs, a steady diet of ever-changing technology, and competition from “citizen journalists,” social media denizens and activists, are hard- pressed to keep up, notably amid a swirl of xenophobia, hate speech, populism and economic/political unrest.

Moreover, it is difficult to cover a labour-intensive story when one is trying to make ends meet on a shoestring budget, often as a freelancer, juggling multiple assignments with pressing (if not conflicting) deadlines, and at great personal risk.

Based on the findings of the first EuroMed Migration Communications Study “How does the media on both sides of the Mediterranean report on migration,” a mutually reinforcing relationship exists between media, public attitudes and policy making, in regards to migration as an increasingly salient topic of public discourse. In a 2006 report titled “Migration and public perception,” the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) of the European Commission already sought to highlight the link between perceptions and policy, arguing that: “... public perceptions of migration may strongly influence the effectiveness with which migration can be managed” and ultimately that “public perception has the capacity to block progress on developing effective policies ...” In the 2015 European Agenda on Migration (COM(2015) 240 final) the Commission notes that: “Misguided and stereotyped narratives often tend to focus only on certain types of flows, overlooking the inherent complexity of this phenomenon, which impacts society in many different ways and calls for a variety of responses.”

Based on the observation of simplified and sensationalist narratives that are currently dominating migration reporting, several organizations, such as ICMPD and the OPEN Media Hub, launched actions such as the Migration Media Award with the aim to promote narratives that are balanced, fair and evidence-based, in line with standard requirements of ethical journalism which in turn would create space for increased evidence- based migration policy development.

Migration and Media - A Journalist's Handbook
Impact of Public Attitudes to migration on the political environment in the Euro-Mediterranean Region

Impact of Public Attitudes to migration on the political environment in the Euro-Mediterranean Region

  • The more immigration is important in the public debate, the more seats far-right parties tend to win. In other words, the number of seats won by radical right parties in a country closely follows the salience of immigration when measured as the percentage of people saying it is one of the most important issues affecting their country.

  • Reporting tends to follow consumer preferences, rather than vice versa (Gentzkow and Shapiro, 2010), the effects of media reporting on political attitudes tend to be non-durable. However, media reporting is likely to affect what is on the political agenda.

  • Individuals are only likely to re-consider their political behaviour if their emotions are engaged by that issue. Only salient issues engage emotions. On the other hand, issues that individuals do not consider to be salient, or important, will not cause them to change their attitudes and behaviour because they do not become emotionally engaged with them.

  • Based on the models developed in this report, it is likely that radical right parties are likely to win in excess of 21% of European Parliament seats in 2019, slightly more than the 18% of seats they won in 2014.

Impact of Public Attitudes to migration on the political environment in the Euro-Mediterranean Region
How does the media on both sides of the Mediterranean report on migration?

How does the media on both sides of the Mediterranean report on migration?

This Study “How does the media on both sides of the Mediterranean report on migration?” was carried out and prepared by the Ethical Journalism Network and commissioned in the framework of EUROMED Migration IV (EMM4, 2016-2019). The objective of this project, financed by the European Union and implemented by ICMPD, is to support EU Member States and ENI Southern Partner Countries in establishing a comprehensive, constructive and operational dialogue and co-operation framework, with a particular focus on reinforcing instruments and capacities to develop and implement evidence- based and coherent migration and international protection policies. In order to achieve this objective, EMM 4 builds upon the results of the first three phases of the project (2004-2015) and tailors its activities around two pillars: the first pillar facilitates effective North-South and South- South regional dialogues and co-operation in the four main fields of migration and international protection-related matters (legal migration; irregular migration; migration and development; international protection and asylum). The second pillar focuses on capacity-building by applying a new outcome-oriented approach that includes sub- regional activities, tailor-made national training programmes and targeted technical assistance packages for committed partners. Both pillars are supported by a horizontal and cross-cutting thread aimed at accumulating evidence-based knowledge and establishing effective communication in order to contribute to a more balanced narrative on migration.

How does the media on both sides of the Mediterranean report on migration?